Southern Brazil Cold Coffee Risk TUE/WED

Climate Impact Company Sunday Global AG Report

Global Weather/Climate Report

Issued: Sunday June 22, 2025

Highlights: Southern Brazil coffee risk; Heat continues U.S. AG and Europe although 12Z GFS is cooler in the 11-15-day period.

Fig. 1-2: GFS freeze risk to the Southern Coffee areas in Brazil TUE/WED morning.

Discussion: The 12Z GFS maintains an over-the-weekend cold risk into Southeast Brazil on TUE/WED morning (Fig. 1-2). The cold risk reaches the southern Brazil coffee-growing areas each morning. Some damage is possible given the GFS outlook. Meanwhile, in the U.S. AG Belt, hit-and-miss heavy thunderstorms are in the 15-day outlook (Fig. 3). However, parts of the U.S. Corn Belt miss the heavier rain. Anomalous heat persists much of the next 7-10 days with chance for cooler weather in the 11-15-day period. The short-term heat is brutal across the U.S. Corn Belt with widespread Heat Advisories and Excessive Heat Warnings. Another heatwave is ongoing in Europe and is likely to continue for another 7-10 days (Fig. 4). Most of the affected areas are dry and causing the drying soil conditions. However, in the 11-15-day period, the 12Z GFS introduces a cold front that squashes parts of the Europe heat with showers and thunderstorms (Fig. 5) and the heat core shifts to Southeast Europe.

Fig. 3-5: The GFS 15-day percent of normal rainfall forecast across the U.S. AG Belt and (GFS) 1-7-day and 11-15-day temperature anomaly forecast across Europe and Western Russia.