Summer 2025-26 Featured Climate Extremes Across Australia

Climate Impact Company AG Hot Spot

Issued: Wednesday March 4, 2026

Highlight: Summer 2025-26 featured extremes across Australia.

Fig. 1-4: The meteorological summer 2025-26 temperature and precipitation deciles across Australia and February 2026 plus last week’s rainfall.

Discussion: Meteorological summer 2025-26 produced harsh climate extremes across Australia. Most of the southern half of Australia observed MUCH ABOVE normal anomalous heat (Fig. 1). The heat was accompanied by locally very dry climate in parts of Victoria and Northeast New South Wales plus Coastal Southwest Australia (Fig. 2). However, summer 2026 will be remembered for prohibitive rainfall centered on the east-central to northeast continent which became enhanced to an all-time-record level during February (Fig. 3). The late FEB/early MAR rainfall pattern indicates the recent southward shift of heavy rain continues (Fig. 4).

The latest rainfall outlooks indicate a northward shift (of heavy rain) to the North and Northeast Coast with enhancement from tropical cyclones likely (Fig. 5). The 8-14-day forecast, equally combining GFS and ECM projects heavy rain extending southward from the North Coast (Fig. 6). In the extended range, ECM favors a wet retreat in the 16-30-day period to the North Coast for the heaviest rainfall (Fig. 7).

Fig. 5-7: The GFS+ECM percent normal 14-day rainfall forecast and ECM 16-30-day rainfall anomaly projection.