NOAA To Make Adjustments to AI Eagle Model
11/05/2025, 7:25 am EST
Climate Signals Indicate More Interesting Cold Weather for U.S.
11/11/2025, 2:43 pm EST
Climate Impact Company Early AG Market ALERT
Issued: Friday November 7, 2025
Highlight: Dry soils but wet weather ahead for Brazil; Wet soils but dry weather ahead for Argentina.
Fig. 1-2: The South America 7-day percent of normal rainfall analysis and daily soil moisture anomaly review.
Discussion: The recent rainfall pattern across South America has featured some wet weather in the Brazil Coffee Region. However, mostly drier than normal conditions are north and south of that zone except for a heavy rain region in Central/East Argentina (Fig. 1). The NOAA daily soil moisture anomalies analysis maintains a dry Brazil/wet Argentina signature (Fig. 2). The latest 2-week forecast equally combines GFS and ECM and yields heavy rain areas for the 7 days ahead in Southeast and East-central Brazil (Fig. 3) while the week-2 forecast features heavy rain risk near and northeast of Paraguay (Fig. 4). Climate forecasts are maintaining wet Brazil forecasts for early-to-middle summer 2025-26. The operational extended range forecasts agree as ECMWF projects wet conditions in Central to East Brazil compensated for by dry and hot weather in Northeast Argentina/Southeast Brazil (Fig. 5-6).
Fig. 3-4: The GFS+ECM 1-7-day and 8-14-day rainfall amount forecast across South America.
Fig. 5-6: The extended range rainfall anomalies forecast from ECMWF across South America.