France Heatwave, Nearly as Strong as June, Collapses Days 11-15

Climate Impact Company Early AG Market ALERT

Issued: Thursday July 8, 2026

Highlight: Excessive heat Great Plains, relief in Europe days 11-15.

Just ahead: Next round of month 1-4 outlooks; U.S. and AU wind.

Fig. 1-3: GFS ENS risk of >100F and >90F centered on the 6-10-day period and the attendant dryness is intense during the medium range.

Discussion: The peak heat risk ahead across the U.S. is during the 6-10-day period as the climatological hottest part of summer arrives. The 6-10-day forecast has edged hotter for the North-central U.S. including the southeast Canadian Prairies. The risk of >100f covers the central and western Great Plains southward through Texas July 12-17 (Fig. 1) and most of the U.S. surges above 90F (except for the Ohio Valley) in that timeframe (Fig. 2). The 11-15-day period is slightly less hot. Attendant dryness develops during the 6-10-day period and continues through the 8-14-day forecast (Fig. 3). Extreme heat alerts for the Central U.S. in the medium range have been posted by NOAA/CPC.

In Europe, the latest heatwave continues and is centered on France coupled with dryness and accelerating drought. The 15-day population weight daily average temperature maintains the heatwave for 10 days with intensity slightly less than the June episode (Fig. 4). In the 11-15-day period relief is on the way as showers and thunderstorms streak into Europe (Fig. 5).

Fig. 4-5: The population weighted 15-day average daily temperature forecast for France and ECM 11-15-day rainfall outlook for Europe.