Storminess Ahead for Great Plains; flood risk increases substantially.

An Update on Global Soil Moisture Anomalies
03/06/2020, 5:23 am EST
Madden Julian Oscillation/Arctic Oscillation Shift Ahead
03/12/2020, 11:16 am EDT
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At risk of several to 10+ in. of rain is anywhere from northeast Texas to the Ohio and Tennessee Valley(s) based on a consensus of the 15-day rainfall forecast by GFS, ECM and CMC. The severe weather threat zone will be Texas and the Missouri Valley.

Discussion: The combination of a repositioning of the polar vortex from near Iceland in February to North-central Canada in March as defined by negative East Pacific oscillation (-EPO) and an already existing prevailing upper trough over western North America as supported by negative phase of the Pacific North America (-PNA) index will lead flooding rainfall, severe weather and late season snowstorms near and just-after mid-March in the already flood-prone Central/East-central U.S. At risk of several to 10+ in. of rain is anywhere from northeast Texas to the Ohio and Tennessee Valley(s) based on a consensus of the 15-day rainfall forecast by GFS, ECM and CMC. The severe weather threat zone will be Texas and the Missouri Valley. Additionally, heavy snows are likely in Montana, the Dakotas and into Nebraska in this evolving pattern for just-after mid-March.