Discussion: The most remarkable soil moisture regimes are the persistent and historic wet soil moisture regimes across eastern tropical Africa and India. The wet soils in this area are the result of the positive Indian Ocean Dipole which peaked in intensity last October. Warm SSTA across the tropical Indian Ocean may try to sustain this wet pattern despite the collapse of the +IOD.
The soaking wet soils in Northwest Russia are the result of persistent onshore flow across this region from the Norwegian Sea which was free of any ice once again this past winter season. The wet pattern in Northwest Russia is compensated for a major drought occurring in Northeast Russia.
The Australian drought is easing rapidly. However, dry conditions in Southwest Australia remains quite harsh. If a weak La Nina forms later this year Australia’s soil moisture could reverse from dry to wet.
The wet pattern in recent months across the U.S. is in the Southeast States. So…the historic wet soils in the North-central States are now joined by the Interior Southeast U.S. both having historic wet soil PDSI signatures.
In Canada dry soils prevail especially Quebec. However, this condition should ease after snowmelt this springtime.
The Black Sea region to Southwest Russia are dry. The vigorous winter storm track causing persistent flooding in U.K. and reversing soil moisture from dry to wet across much of Western Europe failed to reach the Black Sea region. This zone is of major concern for dry-to-drought conditions for the 2020 warm season with expansion likely.
The analysis points toward very dry conditions in Southwest Brazil and Central Argentina plus Chile. Elsewhere soil moisture is neutral to borderline wet.