Changeable Rainfall Pattern in Australia; October Soaking Wet Queensland

Climate Impact Company Sunday Agriculture Report

Issued: Sunday, November 8, 2026

Highlight: Some East Brazil rainfall ahead (drier later month); Patchy rains Australia (Southeast drought stronger).

Fig. 1-4: The 7-day percent normal rainfall observations across South America during 1-14-day and 16-to-30-day rainfall anomalies outlook.

Discussion: As November begins, South America soil moisture conditions are steady featuring a mostly drier than normal to drought scenario across the northern 2/3 of Brazil while Southern Brazil and much of Argentina observes wetter than normal soils. During the past week, significant wet weather was confined to Southeast Brazil and Central Argentina (Fig. 1). This week’s outlook according to the 12Z GFS is a wet shift into parched Northeast Brazil while Northeast Argentina/Southeast Brazil are much drier (Fig. 2). Next week, the wet weather is forecast to expand in Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay (Fig. 3). ECM “Weeklies” continue to emphasize consolidation of wet weather to Southeast Brazil for the 16-to-30-day period (Fig. 4).

In Australia, early November 2026 soil moisture anomalies analysis reveal very dry to drought conditions just inland the East, Southeast, and Southwest Coast while much of Western Australia (away from the coast) observes wet soils (Fig. 5). Central Australia also observes wet soils. The soil moisture profile is the result of a dizzyingly different month-to-month rainfall pattern. In September, Southeast Australia was aggressively dry (Fig. 6) and stayed dry during October (Fig, 7) as harsh drought intensified. However, Northeast Australia was historically wet during October, unusual for Super El Nino. The marine heatwave )MHW) off the Southeast Coast of Australia inspired hot/dry subtropical high pressure in September but lower pressure appeared in October and the anomalous warm water increased available moisture to cause over-achieving rains.

Fig. 5-7: Australia Bureau of Meteorology daily soil moisture anomalies analysis plus rainfall anomaly terciles for September and October 2026.

The outlook through the next 2 weeks indicates positive Antarctic oscillation (+AAO) rules which supports a strong polar vortex over Antarctica, high latitude compensating high pressure around 60S and waves of low pressure across Australia causing patchy-wet weather across the entire continent (Fig. 8). The tendency for patchy wet weather continues in the 16-30-day period (Fig. 9).

Fig. 8-9: ECM 1-15-day and CFS V2 16-30-day rainfall anomalies forecasts across Australia.