Heatwave to Expand Great Plains Drought; Medium range Widespread Heat and Dryness Widens Europe Drought
07/23/2026, 4:06 am EDT
Climate Impact Company Week 2-4 Outlook
Europe/Western Russia
Issued: Saturday July 25, 2026
Highlight: slowly, heatwave shifts eastward.
Charts of the day: The ECM ENS 15-day upper air forecast has correlation to regional SSTA patterns.
Discussion: ECM ENS 15-day forecast identifies the prevailing upper air pattern featuring a low pressure trough near the Gulf of Alaska cool pool, upper ridge extending northeastward from the marine heatwave off the Southwest Coast of North America, elongated upper trough stretched across the North Atlantic warm hole, and high pressure ridge extending into Europe from the marine heatwaves in the Mediterranean Sea and off the Southwest Coast of Europe.
Week-2 Ahead (August 2-9, 2026): Heat continues to subtract soil moisture as Europe drought expands.
Discussion: ECM ENS is hot across central and southern portions of Europe with attendant dryness. The forecast trend is hotter/drier. Note the eastward extension of the heatwave into the Western Black Sea region.
Week-3 Ahead (August 9-16): Eastward expansion of heatwave.
Discussion: CFS V2 maintains the hot weather pattern through mid-August. The drier (and hotter) weather continues an eastward expansion character. Patchy rains appear across Coastal Northwest Europe.
Week-4 Ahead (August 16-23): Russia is hotter.
Discussion: CFS V2 pushes the heatwave into Eastern Europe/Western Russia after mid-August. Wet weather appears in Germany and Poland. Portugal/Spain remain hot and dry.