France Heatwave, Nearly as Strong as June, Collapses Days 11-15
07/08/2026, 5:17 am EDT
Climate Impact Company Early AG Market ALERT
Issued: Thursday July 9, 2026
Highlight: Midwest heat spikes later next week and then cooler but Great Plains are mostly drier than normal next 2 weeks. Europe heat peak July 14-15.
Fig. 1-2: MISO (Midwest U.S.) and SPP (western/southern Great Plains) 15-day population weight daily average temperature forecast utilizing all models.
Discussion: Yesterday’s 12Z GFS was much cooler in the Midwest U.S. Did overnight models hold the cooler change? The MISO region of the U.S. Electric Grid represents the Midwest U.S. The 15-day outlook utilizing all models indicates hot peak July 14-17 easing to near normal July 20-23 (Fig. 1). The SPP region, representing the western and southern Great Plains, turns hot in the 6-10-day period and the heat lingers through day-15 although GFS is much cooler days 13-15 (Fig. 2). Clearly, GFS is the renegade cooler model. On the precipitation front, streaks of generally isolated thundershowers appear in the 14-day GFS+ECM forecast in the Great Plains. However, the northern 2/3 of the Great Plains are generally drier than normal through 7 days (Fig. 3) while the 8-14-day period is generally dry throughout the Great Plains (Fig. 4).
Fig. 3-4: GFS+ECM 14-day percent normal rainfall forecast.
The ongoing Europe heatwave has not peaked. The latest 15-dy outlook indicates hottest days for Europe are July 14-15 (Fig. 5). The heatwave steadily loses intensity after the mid-month peak. The 8-14-day forecast projects expansive wet weather helping to ease the heat (Fig. 6). The short-term heat and dryness will continue to worsen Europe Drought (Fig. 7).
Fig. 5: The population weight 15-day average daily temperature forecast for Europe utilizing all models.
Fig. 6-7: ECM 8-14-day rainfall forecast across Europe and daily soil moisture analysis from NOAA/CPC for Europe.
Heavy rain is forecast during the medium range by both the GFS and ECM for Southeast Brazil (Fig. 8). Recent wetter than expected wet weather across India begins to ease as 15-day outlooks shift much drier (Fig. 9).
Fig. 8-9: ECM 8-14-day rainfall forecast for Brazil and 15-day rainfall anomaly outlook for India.