12Z GFS Much Cooler Midwest to Northeast in Medium Range
07/11/2025, 1:28 pm EDT
Low Pressure Drifting Toward 86-88F Water Temperatures Northern Gulf Later This Week
07/15/2025, 4:54 am EDT
Climate Impact Company AG Hot Spot
Issued: Monday July 14, 2025
Highlight: Wicked weather ahead for Australia.
Fig. 1-2: AI Graph Cast 6-10-day and 11-15-day temperature anomaly forecast across Australia.
Discussion: An ambitious convection phase of the Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) is located north of Australia. Meanwhile, a persistent deep upper trough rides across the southern oceans not far from Australia. If the upper trough can entrain at least some of the MJO energy, an amplified trough delivering stormy weather and potential colder temperatures would emerge.
Some, not all, forecast models indicate the emerging chill in the medium range. The best estimate of what could happen is forecast by AI Graph Cast indicating evolving chill in the 6-10-day period (Fig. 1) broadening in the 11-15-day forecast to affect central and southern continent (Fig. 2). In this scenario, temperature threshold forecasts reveal <28F risk for Southeast Australia and <32F risk for Southwest Australia.
Recent rainfall has been seasonably dry except moderate rains on the southwest and southeast coast (Fig. 3). However, if the upper trough amplifies as suspected, areas of unusually heavy rain could occur on the South and East Coast mainly in the medium range (Fig. 4).
Fig. 3-4: Australia rainfall during the past week and the 15-day rainfall forecast by ECM.