
Neutral ENSO Here To Stay
05/08/2025, 3:05 pm EDTClimate Impact Company Daily Feature
Issued: Monday, May 12, 2025
Highlight: Early season ERCOT heatwave!
Fig. 1: ERCOT SYSTEM daily 15-day temperature average forecast compared to the 30-year normal.
Fig. 2: Using all models, the 15-day maximum temperature forecast for Houston.
Fig. 3: Using all models, the 15-day maximum temperature forecast for San Antonio.
Fig. 4: Using all models, the 15-day maximum temperature forecast for Dallas.
Discussion: Subsidence on the back side of an East Coast trough causes the onset of an excessive hot weather pattern across Texas on Tuesday. The hottest day of an extended heatwave is Wednesday when southwest flow extending across Texas from the hot air source region across the Mexico drought area occurs. Widespread 100’s are likely on Wednesday. The hot southwest flow peaks Wednesday although likely remaining through the 10-day heat wave.