New TC Alert Posted for Central/East Caribbean Sea for Late October

Fig. 1: The morning weather satellite view of the North Atlantic basin.

Discussion: Tropical Storm Oscar is weakening over Eastern Cuba. The tropical cyclone will turn north and into an upper shear zone north of Cuba tonight. Oscar weakens in the shear zone. However, a remaining low-pressure system north of the shear zone midweek is likely to hold together and Oscar drifts north as a subtropical system mid-to-late week missing New England but edging Nova Scotia and Newfoundland late week/weekend. An ALERT is posted for tropical cyclone development late in October for the central/east Caribbean Sea. A Halloween tropical cyclone is likely in this region. The next storm name is Patty.

Fig. 2: Tropical Storm Oscar turns northeastward and weakens this week.