Persistent -GLAAM = Wetter Than Normal Northern Hemisphere Climate Pattern
06/09/2025, 4:43 am EDT
NOAA/CPC Long-lead Climate Forecast JUL/AUG/SEP 2025: Dry/Hot West; Wet East!
06/19/2025, 9:36 am EDT
Climate Impact Company Weekly ENSO Climate Diagnostics
Issued: Monday June 16, 2025
Highlight: No sign of ENSP phase change. Models lean toward La Nina later this year.
Fig. 1: The 12-week monitor of the Nino SSTA regions.
Discussion: The Nino34 SSTA is exactly normal (again) as meteorological summer arrives in the northern hemisphere (Fig. 1). The APR/MAY 2025 multivariate ENSO index (MEI) was steady at -0.4. While oceanic ENSO is exactly neutral, atmospheric ENSO is borderline La Nina. In the subsurface, there is no change in the upper ocean heat anomalies which are slightly warm during recent weeks (Fig. 2). A collection of operational Nino34 SSTA forecasts reveal a tendency toward weak La Nina for later this year (Fig. 3).
Fig. 2: The upper ocean heat anomalies in the equatorial Pacific to the east of the Dateline.
Fig. 3: The Nino34 SSTA forecasts by all operational forecast models.