U.S. Weather Pattern Features Significant Increase in Hazards

Climate Impact Company Week 2-4 Outlook

North America

Issued: Monday, February 16, 2026

Highlight: Warmer pattern favored although snow covered areas struggle to warm.

Chart of the day: Latest NOAA/NWS weather watch, warning, and advisories.

Discussion: The U.S. weather pattern shifts to problematic with a large array of hazards focused on the western half of the U.S. Featured are widespread wind and snow advisories/watch/warnings including a Red Flag Warning across much of the western Great Plains. Widespread dense fog stretches from Dallas to Cleveland. An offshore storm brings high wind near the Northeast U.S. Corridor.

Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid February 22-March 1, 2026: Central U.S. warmth; West Coast storms.

Discussion: The U.S. warm pattern is centered on the western Great Plains with marginal warming Interior East U.S. -PNA pattern sustains excessive precipitation on the West Coast.

Week-3 Ahead Forecast valid March 1-8, 2026: U.S. is warm.

Discussion: Polar vortex retreat to North-central Canada allows most of the U.S. to warm. Some (AI) models have a farther south expansion of the polar vortex which cools the Northern U.S.

Week-4 Ahead Forecast valid March 8-15, 2026: Warm pattern favored.

Discussion: The most likely scenario is Canadian chill and warm to the south across most of the U.S. Areas with snow cover will struggle to warm.