U.S. Winter Gas Population Weight HDD Biased Mostly Warm

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Direct Effects from Imelda and Humberto Stay Offshore the East U.S.
09/29/2025, 6:16 am EDT
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Borderline La Nina/-IOD Pattern Under-performing as Rainmakers in Australia
10/02/2025, 4:43 am EDT
A map of a storm AI-generated content may be incorrect.
Direct Effects from Imelda and Humberto Stay Offshore the East U.S.
09/29/2025, 6:16 am EDT
A map of australia with different colored spots AI-generated content may be incorrect.
Borderline La Nina/-IOD Pattern Under-performing as Rainmakers in Australia
10/02/2025, 4:43 am EDT
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Climate Impact Company U.S. Medium Range Report

Issued: Wednesday October 1, 2025

Highlight: Increasing signs of cooler West, some rain into the Midwest, Central/East staying warm.

Charts of the day: The latest winter 2025-26 population weight HDD forecast. All city HDD forecasts for U.S. and EU posted. Will issue PJM, SPP, and ERCOT-specific later today.

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Discussion: Since last month, it’s getting more difficult to make the case for significant cold this winter season. The November forecast edges warmer, and DEC/JAN is already warm. FEB cold risk remains but confidence is lower. MAR chill remains in the forecast. Forecast models are warm. Mid-latitude oceans are warm. The orientation of mid-latitude SSTA supporting cold weather in North America this winter season showed potential one month ago but are eroding since that time.

Medium-range 6-10 Day Forecast Valid October 6-10, 2025 (AIFS ENS right)

A map of the north america AI-generated content may be incorrect.A map of the united states AI-generated content may be incorrect.

Discussion: Texas is hot during the 6-10-day outlook and warmer than normal for most of the remainder of North America. AIFS ENS is cooler West. AIFS ENS scored number 1 in forecast skill for the medium range during September.

Medium-range 11-15 Day Forecast Valid October 11-15, 2025 (AIFS ENS right)

A map of the north AI-generated content may be incorrect.A map of the united states AI-generated content may be incorrect.

Discussion: Very warm weather across the Mid-south U.S. although a cooler trend, especially using AIFS ENS, is evolving Interior West to Southern Canada.

U.S. Medium-range Precipitation Forecast

A map of the united states AI-generated content may be incorrect.A map of the united states AI-generated content may be incorrect.

Discussion: ECM ENS emphasizes Southwest U.S. wet monsoon weather stretching to the central Plains days 6-10 and Midwest days 11-15. Florida is tropically rainy in the 6-10-day period.

Days 16-20 Extended range Temperature Forecast valid October 16-20, 2025

A map of the north AI-generated content may be incorrect.A map of the earth AI-generated content may be incorrect.

Discussion: Utilizing ECM ENS, a cooler regime rests over the western half of the U.S. while north of a tropically active Gulf of Mexico, the East/Southeast is warm.