+ABNA Index Dominates North America Climate Signals

Climate Impact Company U.S. Medium Range Report

Issued: Monday June 1, 2026

Highlight: Very warm pattern continues except Northwest and Southeast.

Chart of the day: +ABNA index dominates climate signals.

Discussion: The Asia/Bering Sea/North America (ABNA) index remains very positive and is the lead climate signal influence on the North America upper air pattern for the first half of June. The +ABNA regime is present when a strong trough is near the Bering Sea and compensated for by an upper ridge over East-central North America.

Medium-range 6-10 Day Forecast Valid June 6-10, 2026 (ECM ENS and 24-hour change)

Discussion: The persistent warm northern latitude outlooks remain unchanged except for warmer changes across Northeast Canada. Southwest Canada is cool.

Medium-range 11-15 Day Forecast Valid June 11-15, 2026 (ECM ENS and 24-hour change)

Discussion: Core of warmth is across the West with some of the warmth carried eastward on the prevailing westerlies. The East shifts warmer, in opposition to a cooler trend indicated yesterday.

U.S. Medium-range Precipitation Forecast

Discussion: The medium range precipitation forecasts are wet across most of the eastern half of the U.S. while dryness prevails in the West.

Days 16-20 Extended range Temperature Forecast valid June 16-20, 2026

Discussion: The extended range forecast is interesting as dynamic models maintain warm persistence while AI forecasts reverse the pattern cooler. The warmer pattern is favored with the cooler change likely but delayed.