Aerial Coverage of Great Lakes Ice and FEB/MAR/APR Temperature

Climate Impact Company U.S. Medium Range Report

Issued: Wednesday February 18, 2026

Highlight: Medium range is slightly cooler East.

Charts of the day: February 17^th Great Lakes ice and FEB/MAR/APR North America temperature bias.

Discussion: As of February 17^th, the aerial coverage of ice across the Great Lakes is 47%. Since 2014, the current aerial coverage of Great Lakes ice is about average. When Great Lakes ice has been above average as observed during the 2013-14/2014-15 polar vortex winter seasons, FEB/MAR/APR climate across North America was biased colder than normal. When ice is at moderate levels similar with 2026, a cold bias during FEB/MAR/APR appears to the west of the Great Lakes region. When February aerial coverage of ice is low, the FEB/MAR/APR North America temperature pattern is typically milder than normal. The FEB/MAR/APR temperature patterns are related to the prevailing climate regimes that produced the February Great Lakes ice and what followed.

Medium-range 6-10 Day Forecast Valid February 23-27, 2026 (AIFS ENS and 24-hour change)

Discussion: -WPO pattern favors a cool trough in the East. Coolest temperature anomalies are in the Southeast although New York/New England could be colder due to snow cover.

Medium-range 11-15 Day Forecast Valid February 28-March 4, 2026 (AIFS ENS and 24-hour change)

Discussion: Near zonal flow aloft supports a widespread mild-to-warm pattern across the U.S. Snow covered areas could over-achieve colder.

U.S. Medium-range Precipitation Forecast

Discussion: The West Coast storm track weakens mid-to-late 6-10-day period and shifts northward to Southwest Canada in the 11-15-day forecast. Ontario turns snowy while wet weather risk increases in the Ohio Valley.

Days 16-20 Extended range Temperature Forecast valid March 5-9, 2026

Discussion: The extended range forecast is very warm across most of the U.S. except the Northwest and near the U.S./Canada border.