Projecting U.S. Gas Population Weight Monthly 20-Year Rankings Vs. Last Year

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A comparison between rankings from the past 20 years for the winter 2021-22 forecast vs. 2020-21 observed of gas population weight HDD is issued. The cold risk for the U.S. is on the front half of winter trending milder than last year for late winter.

Updating U.S. Gas Population Weight HDD For Winter 2021-22

OCT-21NOV-21DEC-21JAN-22FEB-22MAR-22
FCST248527866953738573
LAST244544840978778617
2020-21294466809876892567
10-YR267561797909784610
20-YR280545837925797616
30-YR311589885991819642

Table 1: U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast for the 2021-22 cold season compared to the previous forecast issued Oct. 8 and the 10-year, 20-year and 30-year normal.

Discussion: The U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast for the 2021-22 cold season is updated. The forecast is adjusted warmer for November by 17 HDD (527) which ranks 9th warmest of the past 20 years. The December forecast is adjusted colder by 26 HDD (866) and ranks 9th coldest of the past 20 years. A warmer adjustment is made to the January forecast (by 25 HDD) and also ranks 9th coldest of the past 20 years. Cold weather targets the Chicago Market and to a lesser extent ERCOT in December. In January, the PJM-East sector is targeted for winter cold. The February and March forecasts trend somewhat warmer each ranking 7th warmest of the past 20 years. Similar to last year, there is potential for one month to trend colder in a fairly dramatic way – likely December of January. The other months could drift warmer in subsequent forecasts.

Fig. 1: The Climate Impact Company gas population weight HDD forecast for the 2021-22 cold season in the U.S. compared to the 10-year and 20-year climatology.

Fig. 2: The Climate Impact Company gas population weight HDD forecast for the 2021-22 season rank of the past 20 years versus last year.