Discussion: Right now, snow cover is coming on strong and is above normal in aerial coverage across Northeast Eurasia. This zone is the most likely location to gather early season cold air masses including arctic air. Additionally, the widening snow cover and increased arctic air source region risk in this location implies China is a target for increased risk of unusual cold once we’re well into November and December which is a significant problem given their energy crisis.
Traditionally, energy markets move when big cold is on the way, present or abating for a warm-up. While this set of circumstances reigns even more important this winter given elevated energy prices the addition of major storms can also influence the market due to their tendency to be more intense and cause historic damage.
We just witnessed two 940-945 MB low-pressure systems from the Aleutian Islands to the Northwest U.S. Coast the past week. All-time historic rains were the result in California. A 970-975 MB low-pressure system is projected for tomorrow night southeast of Nantucket likely to bring borderline hurricane conditions to Cape Cod and the Islands. If these storms hit the right place (population center/energy infrastructure) significant market impact is likely.
Additionally, as noted above, a careful eye is required on northern hemisphere large energy users such as Europe and China for upcoming winter.
A for what to expect in tomorrow’s medium-range forecasts…keep in mind generating cold weather in the U.S. in late October/early November is difficult when Canada is mild, the Great Lakes and western North Atlantic are warm and snow cover is minimal in North America. So cool pools of air for the Tennessee Valley/southern Appalachians are likely in tomorrow’s 6-10-day outlook while in the 11-15-day forecast expect marginal cool for the Ohio Valley, Southeast and Gulf States.