U.S. Severe Storms/Flooding Rainfall

Climate Impact Company Early U.S. Notes

Issued: Thursday March 5, 2026

Highlight: Severe weather pattern continues; Heavy rain pattern for Texas to southwest Ohio Valley and Washington.

Fig. 1: NOAA/NWS weather watch, warning, and advisory areas.

Discussion: Dense fog advisories dominate much of the eastern half of the U.S. this morning as mild moist air spreading northward from the Gulf is certainly evident (Fig. 1). A large area of flooding from recent heavy rains extends from the Central Ohio Valley to parts of the Missouri Valley and southeastern Great Plains. Winter weather advisories for snow are posted across the Northern Rockies and New York/New England where freezing rain becomes an issue tonight.

Typical of early spring, yesterday’s severe weather reports in the Mid-south States were all hail damage. The severe weather pattern continues today and into the weekend. Severe thunderstorms including a tornado risk reform across the southern Great Plains later today and tonight (Fig. 2). A widening area of severe storms and tornado risk stretch across the eastern Great Plains and include Texas to the Midwest States tomorrow (Fig. 3). Strong to severe storms shift eastward on Saturday (Fig. 4). The NBM 7-day precipitation amount forecast projects 3-7 inches across Texas to the southwestern Ohio Valley and the west-facing mountains of west/northwest Washington (Fig. 5-6).

The U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast is slightly warmer since yesterday for the next 2 weeks (Fig. 7) while both AI models and CFS/ECM trend cooler since yesterday in the week 4-5 outlook (Fig. 8).

Fig. 2-4: NOAA/SPC days 1-3 severe thunderstorm risk areas.

Fig. 5-6: The U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast utilizing all operational models, their consensus, and comparison with 24 hours ago and 30/10-year normal.

Fig. 7: The U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast utilizing all operational models, their consensus, and comparison with 24 hours ago and 30/10-year normal.

Fig. 8: CIC projects U.S. HDD for week 4 and 5 ahead utilizing ECM and CFS forecasts plus 3 AI models.