Possible Early Season Tropical Cyclone Next Week

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An area of shower activity across Cuba is forecast to slowly expand and gain intensity the next few days. By the weekend a low pressure area forms in the western Bahamas and drifts slowly northward. There is a 35% chance that the system is sufficiently organized to transition into a minimal tropical storm (Arthur) early next week while continuing a northeastward drift eventually accelerating out to sea.

Highlight: 35% chance of a minimal tropical cyclone early next week.

Fig. 1: There is a 35% risk of an early season tropical cyclone next week off the U.S. East Coast.

Discussion: An area of shower activity across Cuba is forecast to slowly expand and gain intensity the next few days. By the weekend a low pressure area forms in the western Bahamas and drifts slowly northward. There is a 35% chance that the system is sufficiently organized to transition into a minimal tropical storm (Arthur) early next week while continuing a northeastward drift eventually accelerating out to sea.

Fig. 2: Morning satellite view of the North Atlantic basin.