Strengthening NAWH Is Factor Increasing Trade Winds in Tropics

Climate Impact Company North Atlantic Basin 10-Day Monitor

Issued: Thursday July 2, 2026

Highlight: Continued ALL CLEAR. NAWH a factor on strength of trade winds.

Fig. 1: North Atlantic basin weather satellite view indicates ALL CLEAR of tropical cyclone threats.

Discussion: Upper shear axis is directly across the North Atlantic tropics preventing any tropical waves from forming (Fig. 1). The North Atlantic warm hole (NAWH) is intensifying, one of the most impressive early July signatures on record (Fig. 2). The cold SSTA east of Newfoundland coupled with warm SSTA to the south (Fig. 3) inspire stronger than normal westerly wind compensated for by stronger easterly trade winds to the south of The Bermuda High. Stronger than normal trade winds push Sahara Dust offshore this week reaching the Caribbean Sea by Sunday (Fig. 4).

Fig. 2: The intensifying North Atlantic warm hole.

Fig. 3: The tendency for stronger than normal westerly wind between the NAWH cool and Gulf Stream warmth inspires stronger trade winds in the deep tropics.

Fig. 4: CAMS model projects a Sahara Dust Cloud into the Caribbean Sea by Sunday.

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