Preliminary Look at U.S. Winter 2021-22 Heating Degree Day Forecast

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The cold season 2021-22 HDD forecast indicates each month is in-between the colder 30-year normal and warmer 10-year normal. The front-end of the cold season (October and November) has been adjusted somewhat warmer due to milder forecasts in the East issued yesterday in the latest month 1-3 outlook.

The 2021 CDD Observations/Forecast and 2021-22 HDD Forecast UPDATED

OBS/FCST

8/19/21

Previous 8/12/21Last Year10-Year Normal30-Year Normal
APR-2133414030
MAY-2110210811897
JUN-21275246252213
JUL-22341396371321
AUG-22310308345332290
SEP-22169168179190155
OCT-226361706853

Table 1: Climate Impact Company U.S. population weight cooling degree day observations and forecast for the 2021 season.

Forecast

8/19/21

Previous 8/12/21Last Year10-Year Normal30-Year Normal
OCT-21265277294251311
NOV-21530582466490589
DEC-21844834809821885
JAN-22955957876867991
FEB-22814817892784819
MAR-22590590567540649
APR-22334334314320340

Table 2: Climate Impact Company U.S. population weight heating degree day forecast for the 2021-22 season.

Fig. 1: The Climate Impact Company 2021 U.S. population weight CDD observations/forecast versus 10-year/30-year normal.

Fig. 2: The Climate Impact Company 2021 U.S. population weight HDD forecast versus 10-year/30-year normal.

CDD discussion: The 2021 CDD season in the U.S. has featured one extreme…a robust 275 CDD in June while other months have been typical of recent years, observations in-between the 30-year and 10-year normal. The updated forecast for August, September and October was raised slightly (1-2 CDD) from the previous forecast and each month is about half-way in-between the 30-year and 10-year normal.

HDD discussion: The cold season 2021-22 HDD forecast indicates each month is in-between the colder 30-year normal and warmer 10-year normal. The front-end of the cold season (October and November) has been adjusted somewhat warmer due to milder forecasts in the East issued yesterday in the latest month 1-3 outlook. The meteorological winter forecast is adjusted based on actual and trend temperature anomaly forecasts by the CFS V2 model. December and January are each projected somewhat colder than last year. Featured is an increasingly cold Canada to far northern U.S. climate pattern while areas to the south of snow cover are quite mild. February is the coldest month relative to normal.