Henri’s Potential 5-Day Forecast Track Closer to New England

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Highlight: Focus shifting to Henri which looks closer to southeast New England.

Fig. 1: Weather satellite view of the North Atlantic basin.

Discussion: The remains of Fred is a low-pressure system approaching southwest Pennsylvania and continuing on a northeasterly trek through New England tomorrow. Fred will bring heavy rain to the northern Appalachian Mountains the next 1-2 days causing flash flooding. Severe weather including a tornado risk is present for today in the Mid-Atlantic region.

Tropical Storm Grace is located about 20 miles southwest of Grand Cayman Island with top wind of 65 mph and movement west-northwest at 16 mph and central pressure 993 MB. Grace is forecast to reach hurricane strength by tonight. Tropical cyclone models indicate a category-2 hurricane on approach to the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula where landfall of Grace is tomorrow morning. The forecast track of Grace is slightly farther south than yesterday. Therefore, Grace should weaken (more) over the Yucatan Peninsula. Once Grace returns to the Gulf of Mexico re-intensification to a hurricane is likely and tropical cyclone models indicate potential for a major hurricane before Grace goes inland Mexico late Saturday night.

Tropical Storm Henri is located about 160 miles south-southwest of Bermuda. Henri is now moving west at 8 mph with top wind 65 mph and central pressure 998 MB. Henri is forecast to move farther west before a north turn in about 36 hours. Consequently, tropical cyclone models are closer to southeast New England by early next week. Henri will strengthen to a hurricane during the north turn and maintain minimal hurricane strength southeast of New England early next week.

Fig. 2: Tropical cyclone models forecast tracks for Tropical Storm Grace.

Fig. 3: Tropical cyclone models forecast intensity for Tropical Storm Grace.

Fig. 4: Tropical cyclone models forecast tracks for Tropical Storm Henri.

Fig. 5: Tropical cyclone models forecast intensity for Tropical Storm Henri.