Surge In Ocean Rise Off The U.S. West Coast Ahead!

Climate Impact Company Daily Feature

Issued: Friday September 11, 2026

Highlight: Surge in ocean rise off the U.S. West Coast ahead!

Discussion: Last spring, a large region of anomalous warm water in the equatorial subsurface of the West/Central Pacific Ocean emerged and began to “plow” eastward. Eventually the ocean warming moved across the length of the equatorial Pacific Ocean and currently the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean is record warm (Fig. 1). The eastward surge of ocean warming dramatically changed the convective cloud pattern across the tropical Pacific. Outgoing longwave radiation anomalies (OLRA) identify a record-long (since June) highly convective cloud pattern stretched across the Pacific Ocean tropics east of the Dateline (Fig. 2). The warm eastward surge of anomalous warm subsurface water and the impact on the tropical cloud patterns are causal of Kelvin Wave responsible for causing El Nino onset and the dramatic strengthening of El Nino the past couple months and the anticipated further strengthening to record strength later this year.

The dramatic warming of the eastern equatorial Pacific ALSO means sharp sea level rise. Current NOAA analysis reveals the ocean rise in the eastern equatorial Pacific during the recent oceanic warming is about 14 inches (Fig. 3). The Kelvin Wave causing the ocean rise is “fanning” northward and will reach waters off the California Coast during the month of September raising sea level from about 6 inches above normal (now) to 12-13 inches above normal later this month. The ocean rise is accompanied by additional warming.

The poleward surge of the Kelvin Wave is having an influence on climate. During the next 2 weeks, global atmospheric angular momentum (GLAAM) surges to off-the-charts positive phase (Fig. 4), a sure sign of an intensifying global El Nino climate.

Fig. 1: Fueling Super El Nino…record warm subsurface equatorial East Pacific.

Fig. 2: The record warm subsurface East Pacific has fueled surges of heavy convection in the tropical atmosphere consistently for a record 4-month period.

Fig. 3: A warming ocean surface means sea level rise. The sea level rise of the eastward propagating Kelvin Wave in the equatorial Pacific Ocean causing Super El Nino to emerge is forecast to surge poleward in September and cause a significant sea level rise as far north as Coastal California.

Fig. 4: The poleward surge of the Eastern Pacific Kelvin Wave affects the global atmospheric angular momentum forecast to peak during the next 2 weeks.