Ongoing Canada Fires/Dangerous Summer Outlook

Climate Impact Company Daily Feature

Issued: Thursday, May 29, 2025

Highlight: Northern Manitoba fires force 17,000 evacuations. The fire season ahead for Canada steadily increases to dangerous levels for west/central Canada.

Fig. 1: Canadian Meteorological Center weather watch, warning, and advisories.

Discussion: In Canada, weather warnings for hot and dry weather are issued for much of Alberta while fires forcing thousands to evacuate their homes are ongoing in Northern Manitoba (Fig. 1). Air Alert’s are issued for fallout from the Manitoba fires eastward into Ontario. Thunderstorms are likely across Alberta tomorrow. However, they are hit-and-miss and could ignite additional fires due to cloud-to-ground lightning. On Saturday, Alberta turns warmer/drier again. A meaningful cold front moves across Alberta on Sunday. The Canadian Meteorological Center indicates an evolving fire risk across Western Canada during June (Fig. 2) with a well above normal fire risk for Southwest Canada by July (Fig. 3) reaching all Southwest and Central Canada (plus Northwest U.S.) during August (Fig. 4).

Fig. 2-4: The Canadian Meteorological Center projects fire risk across Canada for each month of meteorological summer.