Impressive West U.S. heat/Dryness Until Wet Monsoon Arrives…Latest NOAA Long-lead Outlooks

Climate Impact Company Daily Feature

Issued: Thursday, March 19, 2026

Highlight: Impressive West U.S. heat/dryness until stronger than normal Southwest U.S. wet monsoon arrives. East-central rain in April; West/South Great Plains dry during summertime. East/Northeast U.S. hot/humid Q3/2026.

Fig. 1-2: The NOAA/CPC probabilistic temperature and precipitation forecast for the U.S. for April 2026.

Discussion: The NOAA/CPC probabilistic temperature forecast for April maintains the “memory of winter” pattern with anomalous warmth, sometimes very impressive, arcing from the Interior West to the Southeast U.S. (Fig. 1). In April, the West is exceptionally dry while wet weather extends from Texas across the entire Midwest (Fig. 2). The 90-day outlook valid for Q2/2026 reveals steady anomalous warm risk across most of the U.S. except for the Upper Midwest to the New England States (Fig. 3). During Q2/2026, the wet pattern shifts to the Atlantic States while dryness in the West extends to Kansas (Fig. 4). Mid-to-late summer hot weather risk remains in the West (Fig. 5) although a stronger than normal wet monsoon across the Southwest U.S. (Fig. 6) appears adding humidity to the hot weather pattern. Dryness in the central Great Plains expands to Texas. In the East and Northeast, very warm and humid conditions develop for mid-to-late summer. The NOAA/CPC Seasonal Drought Outlook valid through June emphasizes widening drought in the West U.S. to central Great Plains while much of the eastern half of the U.S. loses dry-to-drought conditions (Fig. 7).

Fig. 3-4: The NOAA/CPC probabilistic temperature and precipitation forecast for the U.S. for April/May/June 2026.

Fig. 5-6: The NOAA/CPC probabilistic temperature and precipitation forecast for the U.S. for July/August/September 2026.

Fig. 7: The NOAA/CPC U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook valid through June 30, 2026.