U.S. Pattern Features Both Excessive Heat and Heavy Rainfall
08/03/2026, 5:59 am EDT
Climate Impact Company Week 2-4 Outlook
Australia
Issued: Tuesday August 4, 2026
Highlight: Drought development/expansion underway.
Charts of the day: July 2026 dryness inspires drought development/expansion.
Discussion: The July 2026 rainfall anomalies identify dramatically drier than normal climate across the East and West Coast of Australia. Each dry zone is part of evolving drought.
Week-2 Ahead (August 9-16, 2026): Some coastal rains but most of Australia dry into mid-August.
Discussion: ECM ENS is clearly the No. 1 skill forecast model in recent weeks across Australia. The ECM ENS week-2 ahead forecast is cool central continent with some rain on the northwest/north coast while most of the continent is dry.
Week-3 Ahead (August 16-23): Southwest and Southeast are warmer than normal.
Discussion: Areas experiencing drying soil are warmer than normal after mid-August. Patchy wet weather affects the northwest coast and Queensland.
Week-4 Ahead (August 23-30): Staying warmer than normal Southwest and Southeast Australia.
Discussion: CFS V2 is warmer than normal with a bias to the regions with developing dry soil. The North Coast shifts cooler. Some patchy rain on the East Coast is possible.