Unwanted Cold Emerges in Ukraine and Shifts West across Europe

Highlight: Unusual chill ahead for Europe.

Fig. 1-2: GFS medium-range temperature anomaly forecast across Europe.

Discussion: A marginally cool pattern exists nor in the Black Sea region. However, an unusually chilly air mass in that region is expected to develop and widen in the 6-10-day period according to GFS (Fig. 1). The chill is strongest over Ukraine and just to the north in Western Russia. At that time minimum temperature risk dipping to <32F/0C is evident with several areas to 28F/-3C. In the 11-15-day period, GFS pushes the cold pattern westward across Europe (Fig. 2). At that time there is a 30-40% risk of <32F/0C through Central Europe. Part of the catalyst for this unusual chill is a forecast (by GFS) of strengthening negative phase of the global atmospheric angular momentum (-GLAAM). The -GLAAM pattern is in an unprecedented 90+ day period of strong negative phase with further strengthening possible just-after mid-April (Fig. 3). The unwanted late season chill complicates energy market conditions for Europe at a time of year when cold risk has usually passed.

Fig. 3: The global atmospheric angular momentum 90-day observations and 15-day forecast.