Fig. 1: Weather satellite view provided by The Weather Channel reveals a storm system just-departed Germany where heavy rains causing fatalities occurred.
Discussion: According to Reuters News, at least 19 people have died in Germany and many are missing as record rainfall caused rivers to burst their banks and sweep away homes while washing out cellars. The event was caused by yet another intense upper-level low pressure trough (Fig. 1) shifting slowly eastward across Central Europe yesterday. The upper trough shifts slowly southeastward the next couple days bringing excessive rain to parts of Southeast Europe (Fig. 2). The event will cause a High-Water II Event by July 19 on the Rhine River at Kaub (Fig. 3).
Fig. 2: The GFS 5-day rainfall forecast indicates the heavy rains in Germany shift into Southeast Europe.
Fig. 3: Rhine River water level at Kaub, Germany and 10-day forecast.