12Z GFS Projects 114F for Minneapolis July 24th

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Given the new source region for extreme heat...the D3/D4 drought area across the Canadian Prairies and North-central U.S., anomalous heat can easily shift eastward reaching Minnesota in 10 days.

Fig. 1: The midday 12Z GFS projects 117F on the Minnesota/North Dakota state line on Saturday July 24. 110-112F is common in North/South Dakota. Minneapolis surges to 114F!

Fig. 2-3: The midday 12Z GFS trended slightly warmer in the western Great Plains and cooler in Ontario during the 6-10-day period. A wetter change was made Wisconsin to Ohio in the 6-10-day period while Louisiana is wetter.

Fig. 4-5: The midday 12Z GFS is hotter in the Great Plains in the 11-15-day period while the Missouri Valley turns drier. Near Chicago, gully-washer thunderstorms bring a wetter forecast change.

DatesCDD Forecast12-hr Change24 hours ago10-year NML30-year NML
Jul 9-1579.0_-0.480.186.879.9
Jul 16-2284.1-5.991.087.581.3
Jul 23-2997.6-1.898.085.480.5

Table 1: The 12Z GFS population weight CDD forecast compared to the 30-year/10-year normal and 12 and 24 hours ago. The forecast is slightly cooler since yesterday at this time through next week.