All Seasonal TC Forecasts Updated…Below Normal El Nino Year

Climate Impact Company Tropical Feature

Issued: Wednesday June 10, 2026

Highlight: All seasonal TC forecasts update…Below normal El Nino year.

Table 1: Operational seasonal tropical cyclone activity forecasts for the North Atlantic basin and 2026 season are indicated.

Discussion: The early June seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone activity across the North Atlantic basin for 2026 are updated. Climate Impact Company, Colorado State University, and Tropical Storm Risk/U.K. each lower their seasonal totals from initial outlooks released in early April. All providers update their forecasts on or near August 1^st as the beginning of the most active part of the season arrives. Upper-level westerly shear inhibiting tropical cyclone development is expected this year across the tropical North Atlantic basin caused by an East Pacific (likely) vigorous El Nino. Additionally, the North Atlantic Ocean has cooled during late spring and enters the 2026 tropical cyclone season somewhat less warm than most years during the very warm regime of the past 10-15 years. The North Atlantic warm hole (NAWH) south of Greenland is potent and is correlated to stronger than normal westerlies at that latitude compensated for by fast easterlies across the North Atlantic tropics further suppressing seasonal activity. The East Pacific could see a record active year given the warming of the Southeast Pacific and developing El Nino. A possibility this season is activity in the East Pacific crosses over Mexico and regenerates in the western Gulf of Mexico.