DEC/JAN/FEB During Strong El Nino for NA, EU, SA, and AU
06/05/2026, 12:46 pm EDT
Possible Record Strength Oceanic El Nino in 2026 but ENSO Climate May Be Less Intense
06/11/2026, 11:20 am EDT
Climate Impact Company Week 2-4 Outlook
Europe/Western Russia
Issued: Tuesday, June 9, 2026
Highlight: Shifting marine heatwave causes forecast to warm farther east.
Charts of the day: Warmer weather to return to Europe.
Discussion: Outlooks reveal the return of warmer weather generates this weekend with very warm to hot weather in the 8-14/11-15-day period including increased risk of >35C/95F in the 11-15-day period. The immense Mediterranean Sea marine heatwave is expanding eastward which supports positioning of the upper-level high pressure ridge shifting eastward as indicated by the CFS V2 week 2-4 outlook.
Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid June 21-28, 2026: Warmth regenerates, biased farther eastward.
Discussion: Warming returns to Europe biased farther eastward compared to earlier in the warm season. Patchy rains appear in France.
Week-3 Ahead Forecast valid June 28-July 5, 2026: Warmth continues to strengthen eastward.
Discussion: Anomalous warmth widens eastward across Southwest Russia where anomalies are strongest. Patchy shower activity stretches from U.K. to Southeast Europe and parts of Coastal Black Sea.
Week-4 Ahead Forecast valid July 5-12, 2026: The hot bias is not Southwest Europe.
Discussion: Ongoing dryness in the Baltic region while anomalous warmth constricts to East-central Europe.