East U.S. & Europe Turn Cold In The 6-10-day Period Increasing Risk of Natural Gas Price Rise

Climate Impact Company Daily Feature

Issued: Tuesday, December 23, 2025

Highlight: Natural gas prices begin to drift upward as East U.S. and Europe turn cold simultaneously in the 6-10-day period.

Fig. 1: The PJM System population weight 15-day daily average temperature and 30-day history.

Discussion: Natural gas prices spiked to $5.46 on December 5^th anticipating a frigid East U.S. 6-10-day period (Fig. 1). Arctic air was widespread across most of the eastern half of the U.S. The PJM System (Chicago to Washington) average temperature was a frigid 18F on December 14-15. Typical of arctic air presence when snow cover is minimal, a following warm-up is easier to generate. By December 18^th the high populace PJM sector warmed above normal. Prior to the warm-up, a natural gas price drop of $1.61 was generated. Without arctic air in the pattern, natural gas price spikes are unlikely to occur. However, due to the presence of negative North Atlantic oscillation (-NAO) forecasts have steadily shifted colder for the PJM sector, particularly PJM-East to close 2025. The medium range forecasts indicate POTENTIAL cold spikes although not arctic in character or as widespread as the early December outbreak for the PJM System. During the early December outbreak, Europe was mild. This time, the high population East U.S. and Europe are each somewhat colder than normal at the same time (Fig. 2). Arctic air is not involved, but both regions are simultaneously cold to start the New Year.

Fig. 2: The PJM System population weight 15-day daily average temperature and 30-day history.