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Climate Impact Company Week 2-4 Outlook
Australia
Issued: Tuesday, November 25, 2025
Highlight: Hotter/drier regime emerges gradually in December according to ECM.
Charts of the day: Stubborn upper trough to linger in Australia.
Discussion: November has been cooler than normal across much of Australia due to a semi-permanent upper trough centered southeast of Australia. The upper trough remains in place well through DEC-25. The upper trough inspires wet risk on the North and East Coast while west of the trough a dry and increasingly hotter-than-normal weather pattern emerges in DEC-25.
Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid November 30-December 7, 2025: Cool in the East.
Discussion: The outlook is consistent as the upper trough cools Eastern Australia. ECM is too dry on the North and East Coast although much of the continent is dry next week. Excessive heat will emerge across the West Coast.
Week-3 Ahead Forecast valid December 7-14, 2025: Wetter and less hot Queensland compared to ECM forecast.
Discussion: Upper trough in the Southeast supports wetter risk on the immediate North and Northeast Coast (compared to ECM). Hot weather across the West expands although (ECM) Queensland heat is overdone.
Week-4 Ahead Forecast valid December 14-21, 2025: Mostly dry.
Discussion: Wet weather is forecast across the Southwest and East-central Coastal areas, otherwise mostly dry.