If Negative Indian Ocean Dipole Develops Q3/2025, La Nina Follows
05/05/2025, 12:43 pm EDT
Climate Impact Company Week 2-4 Outlook
Europe/Western Russia
Issued: Tuesday, May 6, 2025
Highlight: Southern Europe to Black Sea region heavy rain pattern.
Charts of the day: 7-day rainfall and daily soil moisture anomalies.
Discussion: In early May, little or no rain has been observed across much of Europe (except Scandinavia and Portugal/Spain) and the Black Sea region. Consequently, drought conditions continue to expand most notably in Southwest Russia and the eastern border of Poland with a new dry zone in France.
Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid May 11-17, 2025: Turning very wet!
Discussion: The rainmaker trough is increasingly vigorous. Heavy rains are likely on the South Europe Coast with wet weather extending to Southwest Russia, some of the rainfall is heavy. Widespread cool weather is caused by the large aerial coverage of cloudiness and precipitation. However, Western Europe is dry.
Week-3 Ahead Forecast valid May 18-24, 2025: Lingering cool and wet.
Discussion: The upper trough lingers, and the forecast trend is cooler and wetter for Southern Europe to the Black Sea region.
Week-4 Ahead Forecast valid May 25-31, 2025: May rains end.
Discussion: Finally, the pattern dries and some warming regenerates in Eastern Europe.