U.S. Warm and Dry Pattern Continues, Drought Expansion!

Charts of the day: U.S. drought monitor.

Discussion: Expansive drought is observed across the U.S. entering October. In early October, 42% of the U.S. is in a drought condition. The aerial coverage has increased significantly in one month (30% in early September). Since early July, U.S. drought has more than doubled aerial coverage.

Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid October 13-19, 2024: Drought expansion.

Discussion: Cool pattern in the East during early October erodes. Western warmth begins to shift eastward. Nationally, the pattern remains dry and aerial coverage of drought increases.

Week-3 Ahead Forecast valid October 20-26, 2024: Warm pattern centered on Great Plains.

Discussion: Core of the warmest anomalies shifts to the Great Plains. Most of the U.S. is warmer than normal. The dry pattern stays intact with minor rainfall in the Great Lakes region and possibly Montana. Tropical showers are expected in Florida.

Week-4 Ahead Forecast valid October 27-November 2, 2024: Still warm, not quite as dry.

Discussion: No reason to change the prevailing warm pattern as early November arrives. The pattern is less dry although the rainfall in the forecast is generally near normal amount.