U.S. Week 2-4 Outlook Looks Drier

Climate Impact Company Week 2-4 Outlook

North America

Issued: Friday, May 8, 2026

Highlight: The outlook is notably drier (except Southeast).

Chart of the day: CAS end of July soil moisture anomaly forecast.

Discussion: The CAS soil moisture anomaly forecast indicates intensifying drought in the central Great Plains for July 2026. The week 2-4 outlook supports this direction.

Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid May 17-24, 2026: Southeast heatwave.

Discussion: The outlook shifts hotter in the Southeast, enhanced by drought. The heat reaches the Mid-Atlantic. There is less emphasis on anomalous heat across the Great Plains. Wet pattern across the South is somewhat less intense.

Week-3 Ahead Forecast valid May 24-31, 2026: Forecast trend is drier with continued warmth.

Discussion: Anomalous warmth and dryness is most intense across the West-central to East-central U.S. Hot risk shifts away from the East Coast. Wet weather is confined to New Mexico and Florida.

Week-4 Ahead Forecast valid June 1-7, 2026: Warmth continues; Mostly dry away from The Southwest.

Discussion: The warm pattern continues with warmer adjustments in the Midwest. Mostly dry weather continues to dominate the Great Plains, Northwest Coast, and adds the Northeast Corridor.