Changeable Rainfall Pattern in Australia; October Soaking Wet Queensland
11/08/2026, 2:05 pm EST
Climate Impact Company Week 2-4 Outlook
South America
Issued: Tuesday November 10, 2026
Highlight: East Brazil rains could linger East Brazil into early December.
Chart of the day: Regional SSTA influence Brazil rainfall pattern.
Discussion: The SSTA regime in the South Atlantic is relevant to the prevailing rainfall pattern across Brazil. Currently, an intense marine heatwave is located in the eastern subtropics with attendant warming extending across the South Atlantic index zone which is a robust +1.28C. Meanwhile, a cool pool of SSTA rests off the Southeast Brazil coast. The atmosphere responds to the SSTA regime and features quasi-stationary high pressure in the subtropical South Atlantic with trade winds to the north made moist by the anomalous warm SSTA. The moist trade winds moisture is realized over Brazil by the presence of a semi-permanent upper trough extending northwestward from the cool pool.
Week-2 Ahead (November 22-29, 2026): East Brazil can still be wet.
Discussion: ECM “weeklies” are fixated on El Nino climatology: Tendency for a low-pressure trough across Argentina. While CIC does not disagree, increased recognition of the trough/ridge regime identified above is required. Implied is a potentially wetter scenario farther northward in East Brazil compared to the ECM forecast.
Week-3 Ahead (November 29-December 6, 2026): Wet weather may linger East Brazil.
Discussion: The SSTA regime east of Brazil lingers therefore lingering rains are possible East Brazil and somewhat wetter than indicated by ECM. Northern Brazil heat and dryness accelerates drought.
Week-4 Ahead (December 6-13, 2026): Wet bias southward.
Discussion: As the middle third of December arrives, the wet bias becomes Argentina and Paraguay/Southeast Brazil.