U.S. AG Belt Turning Drier/Hotter Days 8-14 Ahead
06/13/2025, 5:15 am EDT
GFS Eager to Forecast Low Pressure During The Medium-range in Gulf of Mexico
06/17/2025, 9:30 am EDT
Climate Impact Company North Atlantic Basin 10-Day Monitor
Issued: Monday June 16, 2025, 8:35AM EDT
Highlight: North Atlantic basin remains quiet. June likely to end without a tropical cyclone for only 2nd time past 10 years and first since 2019.
Fig. 1: Morning weather satellite view of the North Atlantic basin.
Discussion: Climate Impact Company often mentions optimum climate normal (OCN) which identifies 5-year, 10-year, and 15-year climatology due to the vast differences in these shorter-term historical weather records with standard 30-year climatology. During 2016-24, the North Atlantic basin has shifted into a consistently more active than normal tropical cyclone pattern which represents an OCN. Various forecasts for 2025 are very close to the 9-year OCN. During 2016-24, the first tropical cyclone of the season occurred very early with only 2019 seasonal debut after the month of June while 5 of the 9 years observed the first event prior to June 1st (Fig. 1). Currently, the North Atlantic basin is ALL CLEAR (Fig. 2). Operational models indicate no tropical cyclones during the next 15 days. If so, 2025 will be only the second year of the past 10 when the seasons first event took place after the month of June.
Fig. 2: The morning North Atlantic basin weather satellite view.