Global Soil Moisture Anomalies Observations and Trend

May 2026 Climate Impact Company Global Soil Moisture Outlook

Issued: Friday May 8, 2026

Highlight: El Nino to induce major drought Indonesia, advancing into Australia, and likely effecting India. Southern U.S. drought strengthens. Dryness shifts westward across Europe.

Fig. 1: The April 2026 global soil moisture anomalies analysis by NOAA/CPC.

Observation discussion: Currently, NOAA/CPC identifies major drought areas across the southeast quadrant of the U.S., developing across the West U.S., and Baltic Region in Europe (Fig. 1). A major drought across Brazil is eroding to summertime rains. Southern Europe to the Iran Conflict region shifted wetter during the first third of 2026. Indonesia to Central Australia shifted wetter although “sneaky” drought developed in East Australia.

The drought outlook for the middle third of 2026 is somewhat contingent on an ENSO phase change. El Nino is forecast to develop the second half of 2026 with reasonable chance of strong to very strong intensity (Fig. 2).

The influence on drought risk developing during the middle third of 2026 is highest for northern portions of South America, Central America, the Caribbean Islands, and worsening in the southeast quadrant of the U.S. biased toward the Mid-south States (Fig. 3). Other key areas for drought development is a wet-to-dry soil moisture reversal in India, drought expansion in Australia, widespread Indonesia drought, and emerging drought westward across Central Europe plus the Northwest U.S.

Fig. 2: NOAA/CPC ENSO strength probabilities forecast for 2026.

Fig. 3: April 2026 soil moisture anomalies with annotated dry-to-drought soil moisture projections for the middle third of 2026.