Higher Than Normal Cooling Degree Day Forecasts for Europe Summer 2024

Highlight: Europe cooling degree day forecasts for summer 2024 are near the 10-year normal but ease back from previous forecasts.

Discussion: Similar with the U.S., the 10-year cooling degree day climatology for Europe is considerably warmer than the standard 30-year normal. The primary reason (in Europe) for the warmer short-term climatology is due to the North Atlantic warm hole (NAWH) which is an area of relatively cool water south of Greenland persisting for much of the past 10 years. Aloft, the atmosphere has cooled across and downwind this oceanic cool zone forcing a semi-permanent trough to form. To compensate, an upper ridge has tendency to generate across Europe causing increased risk of drought and a warmer than normal climate.

The 2024 Europe selected cities cooling degree day (CDD) forecasts issued by Climate Impact Company (CIC) reveal that, on average, each month of the warm season ahead will produce CDD totals similar with the 10-year normal. The exception is May (cooler) and September (warmer).

The 2024 forecast is similar with 2023 for western cities and warmer than last year for July and August across eastern cities. Spring rains have lowered drought risk and without a large dry soil region anomalous heat has increased difficulty organizing. The summer of 2024 forecast is certainly warmer than the standard 30-year normal but, for now, extreme heat is less likely.

Fig. 1: Climate Impact Company Western Europe selected cities averaged cooling degree day forecasts for the 2024 warm season.   

Fig. 2: Climate Impact Company Eastern Europe selected cities averaged cooling degree day forecasts for the 2024 warm season.