Excessive Rainfall Forecasts Due to Isaias and Rachel
10/09/2026, 9:12 am EDT
Two Alerts Posted for Next Week in North Atlantic
10/15/2026, 10:05 am EDT
Climate Impact Company Week 2-4 Outlook
Australia
Issued: Monday October 12, 2026
Highlight: Negative Antarctic oscillation keeps showers in the forecast as arid weather expected with +IOD/Super El Nino holds off to summertime.
Charts of the day: IOD near +1; Last week’s rainfall.
Discussion: The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) positive phase has strengthened to near +1.00 which is a strong signature. +IOD is a dry climate signal for Australia. Meanwhile, Super El Nino 2026 intensity has levelled off with a daily Nino34 SSTA of +3.14. El Nino has a dry climate signal for Eastern Australia. Currently, parts of the west and east continent are in drought status. Last week patchy light rain was observed across much of South-central and East Coastal Australia.
Week-2 Ahead (October 18-25, 2026): Some rain in the East; Very warm Southeast.
Discussion: Widespread anomalous warmth in the Southeast next week while much of the eastern half of Australia is exposed to up to 1 inch of rain. The West Coast and Coastal Queensland are temperate. Sometimes negative phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is preventing IOD/El Nino-inspired widespread heat and dryness.
Week-3 Ahead (October 25-November 1, 2026): Warm Southeast, elsewhere temperate with patchy showers.
Discussion: Southeast Australia warmth lingers; patchy rains (due to -SAM) across the continent. &Trader Learning Point: Using GFS ENS which continues to score No. 1 with 500 MB forecasts across Australia week 3-4 ahead.
Week-4 Ahead (November 1-8, 2026): Stays warm Southeast; Rain is heavier.
Discussion: Southeast Australia stays warm and moderate rain is possible across North-central to Interior East Australia.