Comparing Best Dynamic and Machine Learning Forecast Models for Australia Outlook

Climate Impact Company Week 2-4 Outlook

Australia

Issued: Friday, July 18, 2025

Highlight: Comparing the best dynamic and machine learning forecast models…AI cooler than ECM.

Chart of the day: The July model skill score so far forecasting temperature.

Discussion: On July 1^st, the Artificial Intelligence Forecast System Ensemble (AIFS ENS) was introduced. So far, AIFS ENS is second-best forecasting 2-meter temperature across Australia for both the 6-10-day and 11-15-day periods. ECM ENS is number 1! The ECM ENS is routinely at the top for the past 1 year of the evaluations shown for most parts of the world including North America and Europe. The AIFS ENS debut is impressive, challenging ECM ENS at the top.

Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid July 27-August 2, 2025: Cold threat!

Discussion: Last weekend, AI models were first to identify a possible cold risk across Australia in the medium/extended range. The 11-15-day forecast from ECM ENS and AIFS ENS is shown for the week 2-ahead period both agreeable to the colder weather pattern. Moderate rains are indicated near the South and East Coast with elevated areas receiving snow. The northwest continent forecast is for lighter shower activity.

Week-3 Ahead Forecast valid August 3-9, 2025: Chilly pattern lingers.

Discussion: ECM weakens the cool pattern while projecting some rain across the northwest and central continent. The AI Graph Cast is used for the “weeklies” and is cooler than ECM.

Week-4 Ahead Forecast valid August 10-16, 2025: Marginally cool and wet.

Discussion: Marginally cool and wet weather is the forecast for much of the continent as mid-August approaches. Once again, due to light rainfall climatologically, the wet percent of normal outlook looks impressive but represents relatively minor rainfall. The AI Graph Cast is cooler than ECM South and East.