Do Large Areas of Wet Soils Affect Summertime Temperature Regimes?
06/02/2025, 5:51 am EDT
Wetter Changes to Global Soil Moisture in May 2025
06/06/2025, 1:52 pm EDT
Climate Impact Company Early AG Market ALERT
Issued: Thursday June 5, 2025
Highlight: Wetter changes Canadian Prairies; South U.S. wet pattern trying to edge northward.
Fig. 1-3: The past 7 days percent of normal rainfall across the U.S. and Southern Canada, GFS 8-14-day rainfall forecast for the Canadian Prairies, and CFS V2 July 2025 precipitation anomaly forecast for North America.
Discussion: Currently, warnings for ongoing brush/forest fires are issued for most of South-central to East-central Canada. The hazard has increased dramatically this week. The eastern Canadian Prairies are now exposed to air alerts. The arid climate accelerating the fire risk is vividly indicated in the 7-day percent of normal rainfall observations across Canada (Fig. 1). Dry weather continues through the weekend. However, wet weather appears early in the 6-10-day period across the western Canadian prairies. In the 8-14-day period, all models indicate potentially substantial rainfall for much of the Canadian Prairies and the remainder of Southern Canada (Fig. 2). Support for the wetter pattern change is not very good as models are split between maintaining a ridge or developing a trough especially in the 11-15-day period. Wet weather is needed for this region. However, the wetter forecasts are made with below average confidence. The daily CFS V2 outlook for July is affected by the wetter changes indicating new wet weather risk across the North-central U.S. during mid-summer while the Canadian Prairies are mostly dry (Fig. 3). The summertime drought forecast for the Canadian Prairies to the North-central U.S. remains valid although confidence eases slightly.
In the U.S., a tale of 2 weather patterns as ECM ENS is mostly dry across Iowa in the latest 15-day outlook while areas to the south remain very wet (Fig. 4). The 24-hour rainfall change is wetter across Missouri to Kentucky indicating the wet pattern is trying to shift northward (Fig. 5).
Fig. 4-5: The ECM ENS 15-day precipitation anomaly forecast, and 24-hour change across the U.S. AG Belt.