Patchy Rains Move across Brazil and Argentina; More Wet Weather Ahead for Brazil
02/16/2026, 11:58 am EST
Estimated U.S. HDD for Week 4-5 Ahead (Very) Warm as Heating Demand Lowers
02/18/2026, 8:58 am EST
Climate Impact Company Early AG Market ALERT
Issued: Tuesday February 17, 2026
Highlight: Warm Nino12 SSTA motivates wet weather in Brazil, Australia rains intensify and are widespread, and a warmer Europe outlook.
Fig. 1-2: AIFS ENS 15-day and AI Graph Cast 16-20-day rainfall anomaly forecasts across South America.
Discussion: A South America rainfall tri-pole evolves over the next 15 days (Fig. 1) driven in-part by the sudden warming of the Nino12 region off the northwest coast of South America. In the warm water zone, models forecasting heavy rainfall are preferred. The convective rains in this region are compensated for by subsidence drying out Northern Argentina. An upper trough moving across southern continent and eastward entrains some of the Nino12 moisture to unload heavy rain on East Brazil. In the 16-20-day period, the warm Nino12 region helping to motivate the South America rainfall pattern shifts as an elongated wet weather zone stretches across Southern Brazil (Fig. 2).
The Australia outlook is prohibitively wet for most of the continent. AI models are utilized although dynamic models are agreeable to possible extreme rainfall centered on East-central to South-central Australia over the next 15 days (Fig. 3). No change in the 16-20-day forecast as the wet regime continues (Fig. 4).
The chilly weather in parts of Europe abates by late this week and is followed by a milder pattern change beginning this weekend and lasting through next week and possibly beyond (Fig. 5).
Fig. 3-4: AIFS ENS 15-day and AI Graph Cast 16-20-day rainfall anomaly forecast across Australia.
Fig. 5: The Europe population weight 15-day daily temperature forecast.