Central/Northern Oceans Are Very Warm and Sustain North-traveling Tropical Cyclones in SEP/OCT

Fig. 1: Daily global SSTA analysis reveal much warmer than normal conditions in the central and northern latitudes likely to enable tropical cyclones to maintain intensity longer with northward travel.

Discussion: Of importance to the 2022 tropical cyclone season is the much warmer than normal middle and northern latitudes of both the North Pacific and North Atlantic (Fig. 1). The warmer than normal ocean surface will allow north-turning tropical cyclones to maintain their intensity for longer periods of time. Danielle and Earl were examples of north-traveling storms maintaining intensity much farther north than usual. Currently, three tropical cyclones are in the northwest Pacific (Fig. 2). If Fiona can survive the forecast path past Hispaniola expect this system to also become a hurricane traveling northward in the North Atlantic next week.

Fig. 2: Current tropical cyclone activity in the northern hemisphere includes Muifa, Nanmadol and Merbok in the northwest Pacific Ocean plus Fiona in the North Atlantic Ocean.