Mid-south U.S. Drought Development Ahead

Climate Impact Company Week 2-4 Outlook

North America

Issued: Friday July 31, 2026

Highlight: Mid-south heat dominates August.

Charts of the day: Southern Plains forecast to turn drier.

Discussion: U.S. soil moisture anomalies analysis continues to reveal torrid drought across much of the U.S. The 15-day SPP forecast is very dry and encourages evolving hot weather.

Week-2 Ahead (August 9-16, 2026): Mid-south U.S. heat.

Discussion: Anomalous heat dome anchors on the Mid-south U.S. with strong dryness for Oklahoma and Texas. The Interior West wet monsoon is active. Thundershowers are likely in the Midwest.

Week-3 Ahead (August 16-23): Mid-south U.S. heat continues.

Discussion: The outlook is consistent with an active West U.S. wet monsoon suppressing heat compensated for by drying (and hot weather) in the Mid-south States. Monsoon moisture extends to the Western Plains. Southwest Canada shifts warmer.

Week-4 Ahead (August 23-30): East-central heat broadens.

Discussion: Widening heat East-central U.S. while the West stays wet. Much of the eastern 2/3 of the U.S> is drier than normal. The Northeast continues to avoid heat.