Another Surge of Ferocious Heat into Southeast Australia in 6-10 Days

Climate Impact Company Monday Holiday Report

Global Weather/Climate Report

Issued: Monday January 19, 2026

Highlight: Steep -AO chills U.S. and Europe, Argentina shifts drier, surge of intense heat into Southeast Australia days 6-10.

Fig. 1-3: The 15-day prohibitive -AO forecast and 12Z GFS U.S. and Europe 15-day temperature anomaly forecast.

Discussion: Fierce negative arctic oscillation promises harsh cold for the U.S. and Europe/Western Russia to close January and (likely) extend to early February (Fig. 1-3). Over-the-weekend, the forecast has shifted much colder in the U.S. In South America, last week shifted drier across Brazil while heavy rains in Argentina began to ease (Fig. 4). The 15-day outlook is soaking wet across northwest continent extending eastward to the Brazil Coast (Fig. 5). Drier than normal weather is forecast for North/Northeast Argentina to Southeast Brazil. GFS indicates a low risk of beneficial rains in Northern Chile in the 11-15-day period. Anomalous heat continues across Chile and includes most of Argentina. In Australia, the 6-10-day forecast indicates high impact weather including another surge of ferocious heat into Southeast Australia where 100F can reach the coast (Fig. 6-7) and a northwest coast tropical cyclone.

Fig. 4-5: Last week’s percent of normal rainfall observations across South America and the 15-day (ECM) rainfall anomaly outlook.

Fig. 6-7: The 12Z GFS 6-10-day temperature anomaly forecast across Australia and the risk of >100F during that period.