Testing Warm ECM Vs. Colder AI for Brazil Ahead

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Climate Impact Company Week 2-to-4 South America Outlook

Issued: Tuesday July 29, 2025

Headline: Testing warm ECM Vs. Colder AI for Brazil ahead.

Charts of the day: Chilly TUE/WED mornings.

 

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Discussion: Chilly Tuesday and Wednesday morning but cold risk to Brazil coffee stays south of the crop area.

Week-2 Valid August 3-9, 2025: AI is much cooler!

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Discussion: An interesting comparison as operational models weaken the upper trough bringing the cool shot to Brazil into middle of this week while AI 4Cast Net V2 ECM ENS regenerates the cool trough. THIS IS TEST 2 for operational vs. AI temperature forecasts with results posted in the AI section of the CIC website once verified. For now, we’ll lean toward the warmer ECM direction.

Week-3 Valid August 10-16, 2025: ECM remains warmer than AI.

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Discussion: ECM warm bias appears as mid-August arrives while AI 4Cast Net V2 ECM ENS lingers cool weather in Southeast Brazil.

Week-4 Valid August 17-23, 2025: AI remains colder than ECM.

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Discussion: Cautiously, preferring the warmer ECM over the remaining slight cool bias by AI 4Cast Net V2 ECM ENS.